A month into MLB’s season, many of the division races seem to be unfolding in an unpredictable manner; at least according to my predictions anyway.
Looking at the numbers, it’s just another sign that the old cliché’ “you need pitching to win” is actually true.
If it is indeed true, there are at least four teams I can confidently say right now, that will make the playoffs:
No. 4 -- Minnesota Twins. Alright, with Johan Santana, Ramon Ortiz and Carlos Silva currently heading the rotation, the Twins already have the three men they need to head their rotation in the playoffs. Santana, a former Cy Young winner, is currently 3-2 with a 3.6 ERA. Ortiz is having a stellar year so far, standing at 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA at the end of April. Silva is putting up decent numbers as well, posting a 2-1 record and a ERA off 3.10 in his first five starts. Adding to the quality of the Twin’s pitching staff, they have one of the top closers in the game in Joe Nathan. Expect the Twins to make a real push in the playoffs, assuming they get there. If only Francisco Lariano wasn’t out the entire 2007 season following his Tommy John surgery; even so, look for the Twins to be a legitimate contender in October.
No. 3 -- New York Mets. Tom Glavine may be 41, but he’s still putting up similar numbers that he did in the early ‘90’s. Through the first six starts of his 2007 campaign, Glavine is currently sporting a 2.80 ERA and a 3-1 record. Behind Glavine is John Maine, who will be a future ace, looking at his numbers with the Mets in the past year. Last season, Maine was called up from the minors and started 15 games, putting up a 6-5 record with an impressive 3.60 ERA. This season, Maine has started five games and owns a 4-0 record, carrying a league leading 1.35 ERA, second in MLB. As a third starter, the Mets hope Orlando Hernandez (aka El Duque) will be their guy; however, Hernandez was recently was put on the DL. Before his recent DL trip, Orlando Hernandez was 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA. However, it is possible that Oliver Perez may be able to handle the load if his name is called upon in the playoffs, as he is 2-2 with a respectable 3.86 ERA. Billy Wagner, the Mets closer, is currently 4/4 on save opportunities and has a stellar ERA of .82.
No. 2 -- Atlanta Braves. With a rotation headed by John Smoltz, 39, and Tim Hudson, 31, the Braves rotation will undoubtedly pose a legitimate threat in the playoffs due to their veteran experience alone. To make the situation better, the numbers that Smoltz and Hudson currently have through the first month of the season make a potential playoff run even more likely. Smoltz is 3-1 with a 3.96 ERA. While the ERA isn’t great, Smoltz has struggled in April before. More than likely, you can expect Smoltz to bring down his ERA as the rest of the season progresses. Hudson, who guaranteed to put up great numbers before the opener, has surpassed any expectations of his guarantee. Hudson not only is having a great season, he is having a career year. Through six starts, Hudson has a 3-0 record with a 1.40 ERA. However, there is a potential closing issue lurking for the Braves ahead. Bob Wickman is 6/7 on closing opportunities, but his ERA is 3.97, which could cause problems in the playoffs if he doesn’t straighten things out.
No. 1 -- Boston Red Sox. Being a Yankee fan, it pains me to say it, but the Sox are dealing right now. At the moment, four of their five starters are putting up more-than-reliable numbers. Curt Schilling is 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA, while the knuckleballer, Tim Wakefield, supports a 2.59 ERA. Wakefield’s record sits at 2-3 at the moment; however, it is to no fault of his own. To the delight of Red Sox Nation, it appears Josh Beckett has regained his composure again, carrying a 5-0 record (tied for the league lead) and a 2.54 ERA. One of the numbers that stands out at the moment is that Beckett has only given up one HR in April; last year he gave up six HR’s in April and 36 throughout the course of the season. Last and definitely not least (and I mean that; literally) is Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Sox paid out over $100 million to get him on the roster when it was all said and done. Currently, he is in the process of adjusting to AL hitters. Dice-K, a nickname he has earned through his career in Japan, has a 3-2 record and a 4.36 ERA. By the time October rolls around; expect Dice-K to have adapted to the game and the players around the league.
If the best overall rotation in baseball wasn’t enough, Jonathan Papelbon is their closer. Papelbon, perhaps the best closer in all of baseball today, has had a stellar season thus far, having not given up one run in all of April. For the record, he went 8/8 on save opportunities as well.
All right, with all of that said, those are my top four pitching teams in baseball right now. The Red Sox and Braves are my new World Series picks and I am now taking the Sox over the Braves in seven games.
I suppose this should be the time to remind any Red Sox fans that my predictions as of late – in any league or sport – have been quite lackluster. Not that I needed to tell you this, but you may want to take my predictions with a grain of salt.
